Both DHL Stormers coach John Dobson and stalwart flanker Deon Fourie spoke ahead of a Connacht visit to Cape Town last year of the ‘dog’ in the Irish team. It didn’t bite them then, but that dog did bite them last week, and the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions need to be wary of it happening to them on Saturday.
The Lions are on the cusp of completing their most impressive Vodacom URC season to date. As it stands and following last week’s impressive mauling of the log-leading Glasgow Warriors, they can even dream of a top-place finish, which would put them in the pound seats to drive for a fairytale finish to the season as they will then play all knock-out games at home.
If they do get themselves into that position, will the fans finally pitch up at Ellis Park to give their team the appreciation they deserve? Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves, for there are some tough obstacles ahead of them, and Connacht, who are well coached and organised, plus retain their traditional tenacity under Stuart Lancaster, are as tough as any.
Their win over the Stormers last week was helped by the Stormers’ generosity in letting them back into the game on two occasions when they should have been shut out, but they wouldn’t have been in the game to profit from the home team’s largesse if it were not for their superb defence and also the way they set up on attack.
Now that there is an air of expectation about the Lions, there might also be a ratcheting up of the pressure on them - although it wasn’t something that troubled them last week when the bookies made them favourites against the top-ranked team.
CAPE TEAM NEEDS TO EMBRACE THEIR LOFTUS APPROACH
Pressure is something that is now squarely on the Stormers after they threw away five points in the Connacht game, and Cape fans will be hoping that has the kind of impact it had when their team went to Pretoria for the away north/south derby. In that game Dobson’s team responded to the pressure by playing a structured game in which their kicking strategy was a key element and won with something to spare.
In short, the Stormers need to avoid playing against themselves if they are to break their bogey team, who have not lost to the Stormers anywhere since they were well beaten in the first ever meeting between these teams back in 2022. That was under a different coach. Indeed, it was that game that precipitated the change and propelled Franco Smith into his current job.
The other two games featuring South African teams are both overseas, with the Vodacom Bulls likely to continue their surge to the front of the field by beating the Scarlets in Llanelli, while it is really anyone’s guess who will win in Edinburgh in the first game of the weekend on Friday night, with the Hollywoodbets Sharks going all out to make the most of the 10 per cent chance they have given themselves of still making the top eight.
WEEKEND VODACOM URC PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS (Round 16)
Cardiff Rugby v Ospreys (Cardiff, Friday 8pm)
Cardiff’s come-from-behind win over Scarlets last week has kept up the momentum of their challenge for a top-eight finish and a win over an Ospreys team that was a little fortunate against the Sharks will put them into top-four territory. With tough games against the current top two, the Glasgow Warriors and Stormers to come, there should be an element of desperation about them. The Ospreys too for, like the Sharks, they still have an outside chance of making the top eight, but like the Sharks, it is no better than 10 per cent.
Prediction: Cardiff to win by 12
Edinburgh v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Edinburgh, Friday 8.45pm)
This is an interesting clash in the sense that not only is it between the current Sharks coach and one of his predecessors, but there is also a future Sharks coach in the opposition dugout. Scott Mathie, formerly coach of DHS and Griquas, is Sean Everitt’s attack coach at Edinburgh. Attack is the area that the Sharks most need to work on, so they might end up not quite knowing what to feel if they win because the opposition was too predictable and easy to defend against. The Sharks have shaded the last two games they have played in Edinburgh and might well do so again.
Prediction: Sharks to win by less than 7
Zebre v Dragons (Parma, Friday 8.45pm)
This bottom-of-the-log clash is one of the few in this round that has nothing riding on it other than pride. The Dragons are building towards a Challenge Cup semifinal, so may not be completely at full strength but at the same time they will be wanting to regain some confidence after conceding 21 points in the last minutes against the Bulls, which conflated the magnitude of that defeat. Like Connacht, the Dragons have some dog to them and refuse to go away and that could just win it for them even though this is an away game.
Prediction: Dragons to scrape it.
DHL Stormers v Glasgow Warriors (Cape Town, Saturday 1.45pm)
The loss of JD Schickerling for the rest of the season to injury really hurts the Stormers’ chances of going all the way in the competition, as having four quality locks was a big part of their game model when they were on their unbeaten run earlier in the season. They are now down to two. For the Stormers the key in this game will be to cut some of the frills that tend to cost them in the home games and try to imbibe the attitude that saw them thrash the Bulls six weeks ago. They have the pack, even without Schickerling, to edge Glasgow.
Prediction: Stormers to win by 7
Fidelity SecureDrive Lions v Connacht (Johannesburg, Saturday 4pm)
This is going to be a testing game for the Lions. They did what they needed to do and more last week by thrashing the log leaders and 2024 champions, but log position doesn’t tell you everything. Although they are only ninth on the log, Connacht should be a much better team than the one Franco Smith put in the field for Glasgow last week and they are one of the best when it comes to rotation of selections. At home you have to back the Lions, but don’t be surprised if there is an upset.
Prediction: Lions to win by 7
Munster v Ulster (Limerick, Saturday 6.30pm)
This is going to be a decisive game, much like the one in Cape Town, when it comes to determining who is in the mix for shooting for the top four or even the top two in the last rounds of the competition in May. Munster scored a good away win last week while Ulster lost at home to Leinster but Ulster have been good enough this season to suggest they can go to Limerick and win what should be a tight game.
Prediction: Ulster to scrape it by less than 5.
Scarlets v Vodacom Bulls (Llanelli, Saturday 8.45pm)
The Scarlets have tripped up the Bulls before when they’ve met in Llanelli and they are an unpredictable team capable of knocking over the best. It shouldn’t happen in this game though just so long as the Bulls stick to the script they followed in the second half against the Dragons a week ago. In other words, be direct and back your forwards. There isn’t a Welsh team that can live with the Bulls pack if they play the right game.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 10
Benetton v Leinster (Treviso, Saturday 8.45pm)
Benetton have been poor this season in comparison with recent editions of the URC and Leinster will start as strong favourites to get the win that could propel them to the top of the log. However, with a Champions Cup semifinal against Toulon set for next week, we may find Leinster rest key players and there may be a deflection of focus that could give Benetton an outside chance.
Prediction: Leinster to win by 8
Log position after 15 games: 1. Glasgow 55 points, 2. Stormers 51, 3. Leinster 51,4. Lions 48, 5. Ulster 47, 6. Munster 46, 7. Cardiff Rugby 46, 8. Vodacom Bulls 45, 9. Connacht 44, 10. Ospreys 34, 11. Sharks 34, 12. Edinburgh 28, 13. Benetton 28, 14. Scarlets 23, 15. Dragons 21, 16. Zebre 14