URC SEASON PREVIEW: To catch Leinster, cue the Stormers

After a few seasons of underachievement in the Vodacom URC, Leinster have started to build the momentum that was expected from them, and with virtually a full Ireland test team at their disposal, they will start this edition of the competition as strong favourites to make it a hat-trick of titles.

All Vodacom URC games will be show live on SuperSport Rugby. For the full fixtures list CLICK HERE.

When the United Rugby Championship was in its previous incarnation as the PRO14, Leinster were dominant. Indeed, one of the reasons that the introduction of the top South African teams (the Toyota Cheetahs and Southern Kings had been in it before) was welcomed was because it would introduce some jeopardy to a competition that had become too predictable and therefore boring.

Sure enough, in the first season, Leinster’s anticipated hegemony was swept away under a tide of late-campaign South African passion that saw the Dubliners get upset by the Vodacom Bulls at the RDS Arena in a semifinal that took place just a few days after Leinster had suffered the disappointment of a last-gasp Investec Champions Cup final defeat to La Rochelle.

That was 2022, and with the DHL Stormers edging out Ulster in a thrilling Cape Town semifinal that went to a match-winning conversion from the touchline by Manie Libbok in the last act of the game, it meant an all-South African final. A final the Stormers won, but they weren’t good enough to make it two in a row when they reached the following year’s decider against Munster, who upset Leinster in their semi.

The year after that, Leinster were well beaten in their semifinal by the Bulls at Loftus, but the Bulls made a mess of their attempt to get a hold on the trophy when they were beaten by Glasgow Warriors. Since then, it has been all Leinster - both times comfortably winning finals against the Bulls.

BULLS NEED TO SHAKE BRIDESMAID TAG

The Bulls, with four final appearances that ended in defeat in five editions, have set themselves up as the competition’s bridesmaids, and their abject failure in last year’s final at the AVIVA Stadium will have increased the pressure on Johan Ackermann and his charges as they start the new campaign. After all, it was to take that extra step by winning the final that Jake White was sacked - well, it was one of the reasons - so making the final while not winning it is not something the Bulls can be satisfied with.

CAPE TEAM SHOWED IT CAN BE DONE

Yet while there was a wide chasm between Leinster and the Bulls in the 19 June finale to the 2025-26 season, what happened two weeks before that should offer some hope to the South African teams, and the other competing sides, that Leinster’s growing domination can be broken.

If it were not for the crazy act that saw replacement loose-forward Ruan Ackermann carded, the Stormers could well have won their semifinal against the eventual champions. Their physical defensive effort was taking its toll on Leinster, and their forwards, as was customary for much of the season, were taking more control as the game went deep.

Unfortunately, the Ackermann card was followed quickly by another, and the Stormers ended up playing the last 10 minutes two men down. And yet still managed to press and stress Leinster, who looked mightily relieved when the final whistle blew.

Although it was a case of so near and yet so far, that performance away from home has inspired the Stormers, who went on to push the All Blacks with a very understrength team in the opening Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour game.

The 10Bet Lions, two weeks deeper into their pre-season, came even closer to beating the All Blacks than the Stormers did, and while there was some consternation after the Kiwis comfortably beat a young Hollywoodbets Sharks team and a Bulls team shorn of its Boks, the fact all the games were being played out of season was a mitigating factor.

Of course, it is not just the South African sides that loom as strong challengers to Leinster. Glasgow Warriors, coached by a South African in Franco Smith, did much of the running in the first part of the season, as did the Stormers, while Munster comprehensively outplayed a full-strength Leinster in the early rounds.

But Leinster started the season missing several players who had been involved in the British and Irish Lions tour of Australia and were always going to build into their campaign. In the end, they had to depend on the Stormers’ aversion to 4G pitches to secure a home semifinal. Had the Stormers not dropped points away to Ulster and Cardiff, they would have hosted Leinster in the semifinal rather than travelling.

YOU NEED TO SECURE A HOME SEMI TO STAND A CHANCE

And that really is the crux of it for the local challengers in this year’s competition - you have to try and ensure the big playoff games are at home. Given how the Stormers easily dealt with Glasgow in their league game - they won 48-12 - and how close they came to Leinster away, the Cape side would probably have won a home semifinal. And the Bulls would have had a much better chance in the final had it been played at Loftus.

STORMERS LOOK STRONGEST LOCAL CHALLENGER

Looking at the comings and goings of the off-season, the smart money should be on the Stormers to mount the strongest local challenge, as they did last year. Wilco Louw, Siya Kolisi and Cheslin Kolbe are the star arrivals, and Haashim Pead, who had his return to his hometown confirmed this week, is a future star.

What stands in the Stormers' way is the concern over their lock complement that was weakened by the departure of two Boks, Salmaan Moerat and Ruben van Heerden. But Riley Norton, who played for the Boks against the Barbarians, wears the No 4 jersey in the Stormers' first game, and if he comes through, the concerns will be allayed.

The Bulls have plenty of depth but may miss Louw, as well as Ruan Nortje, who has gone to Japan. Kurt-Lee Arendse is also Japan-bound. The Sharks have also lost players to Japan in the form of Grant Williams (permanently) and Aphele Fassi (temporarily) but they've gained the returning Thomas du Toit and a very useful and experienced scrumhalf in the form of Ivan van Zyl from Saracens.

The Lions have plenty of youth and play vibrant, energetic rugby, and after making the top eight for the first time last season, will be looking to take another step by making the top four. Don't bet against it, although a lot could depend on how they deal with being part of the elite Champions Cup for the first time. Do they have the depth to compete credibly in both?

SA START NOT HELPED BY CLASH WITH PERTH TEST MATCH

The quest to secure top-four places, or preferably top places as that would be what it requires to be home in a semi, begins this weekend. Unfortunately, the clash with the Springbok game against Australia in Perth on Sunday has weakened the initial part of the local challenge, as it means the SA teams will be without their Boks.

That leaves the Stormers with a bit of a mountain to climb as they open on the 4G surface in Galway against a Connacht team that has improved hugely under the coaching of Stuart Lancaster and beat them in Cape Town last season. Yet the team announced on Heritage Day, even though also shorn of injured players, is still a strong one, which is a reflection of the depth built up by John Dobson.

Considering so many of their first-choice players are in Perth, the Bulls’ team to play Zebre is also quite a formidable one, while the Lions don’t have many Boks and will start their game against Leinster on Saturday with some confidence after their excellent performance against the All Blacks just a few weeks ago. The game kicks off just after lunch on a spring afternoon on the highveld, so if you want to take a flutter on an outsider, then the Lions might be the team to bet on.

The Sharks’ team selected for their home game against the Ospreys features five debutants and can be considered an unknown quantity, but the Sharks have for once had the benefit of a proper pre-season and the players who will face the Welsh side were part of that pre-season. You get the feeling, though, that the attitude should be one of all bets are off on the Sharks until we’ve seen them play.

This early in the season, there is no form guide to go on, but expect the Stormers to be in a close game against Connacht, perhaps just edging it, and expect Zebre to push the Bulls but lose in the end. When it comes to the Sharks, they are the bookies’ favourites, but the Ospreys can be tough opponents, so it might be better to keep your money in your pockets on this one.

The Lions are unlikely to win, but the odds should be good, and the Lions, unlike Leinster, who will be playing their first game of the new season, did warm up against the All Blacks. And in training against the Boks for the fortnight building up to the first RGR test in Johannesburg.

FIRST ROUND VODACOM URC FIXTURES

Connacht v DHL Stormers (Galway, Friday 20.45)

Prediction: Stormers to edge it.

Benetton v Dragons (Treviso, Friday 20.45)

Prediction: Benetton to win.

Ulster v Edinburgh (Belfast, Friday 20.45)

Prediction: Ulster to win

10Bet Lions v Leinster (Johannesburg, Saturday 13.30)

Prediction: Leinster favoured but Lions are a good dark horse

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Ospreys (Durban, Saturday 16.00)

Prediction: Sharks to win but not by much.

Munster v Glasgow Warriors (Limerick, Saturday 18.30)