The four South African teams filled their boots with log points last weekend and they will be looking to do the same again as they head into the final round of Vodacom URC before the break for the EPCR that will prelude the final furlong of the league phase.
Between them the DHL Stormers, Fidelity SureDrive Lions, Vodacom Bulls and Hollywoodbets Sharks accumulated 20 out of 20 available log points last weekend. It didn’t materially change any of their log positions, which is why they need to hit target again. If they do, then this will be a moving weekend for them as the Lions and Bulls are both poised to move into the top six if they win.
The two teams that can be displaced should both be stronger in round 14. Both Munster, who were whitewashed by the Sharks in Durban, and Cardiff, who were pretty close to being whitewashed too if you consider their only points came from an early breakaway try against the Bulls, were weakened by their Six Nations players being rested.
That will change this week with Munster welcoming back at least three internationals, most significantly their Ireland flyhalf Jack Crowley, as they head to a Loftus venue where they won the last time they visited. Munster are famous for being able to bounce back from heavy defeats and all the indications were that they went into crisis management mode the day after they lost in Durban so Johan Ackermann’s men will be fully aware of the potential for a backlash.
MUNSTER NOT THE SAME ANIMAL WITHOUT O’MAHONEY
However, it is hard to see Munster as the same team they were when they had Peter O’Mahoney as their talisman and captain and the returning cavalry does not sort out, on paper at least, the biggest deficiency of their performance at Hollywoodbets Kings Park - the set phase, particularly the scrum.
If the Sharks could scrum and maul Munster into submission then the Bulls can certainly do the same. Cardiff will also be getting several Wales internationals back for their game against the Sharks in Durban that kicks off round 14, although that is an assumption and not a fact for there hasn’t been too much information coming out of the visiting camp.
Cardiff rocked the Sharks to such an extent with a 35-0 win in Durban a few years back that it was the tipping point that saw the end of Sean Everitt’s reign as Sharks coach. It’s unlikely to be the case again but the Sharks would be foolish if they expected the same level of performance from Cardiff that they delivered against the Bulls.
And speaking of Everitt, he’s in charge of Edinburgh now, and will have been hurt by the 50 points his team conceded to the impressive Lions in Johannesburg last week. He will be looking to Saturday’s game against the second placed Stormers as a chance to atone for that humiliation, and with at least three top Scotland internationals back, he has the material for a much better performance.
EDINBURGH WILL BE STRENGTHENED
The bookies are giving the visitors a 20 point start, meaning they expect the Stormers to win by more than 20, which may be a bit much and it shouldn’t be forgotten that while Edinburgh were outplayed on the scoreboard last week they did command enough position to force the Lions to make three times as many tackles as they did.
Damage limitation appeared to be the aim of the Dragons team that lost by just eight to the Stormers last week and it may well be again when they head to Johannesburg to face the Lions on Saturday. They are a good defensive team so the expectation of another massive win for the Lions could be challenged.
However, win both, they and the Stormers should, and with a bonus point to boot, which should mean we get to the close of play on Saturday with two local teams in the top five, the Stormers and Lions, and possibly even the Lions fourth although that would require Leinster to lose to the Scarlets, which isn’t going to happen.
The Warriors should maintain their position four points ahead of the Stormers at the top of the log by beating Benetton, which will help the Sharks who are six points off the top eight bracket with five games to go and have a lot of teams around them also competing for entry to the top eight. One of them being Benetton, although the most dangerous is Connacht, who are six ahead and level with the Bulls and should win at home against Ospreys this weekend.
ROUND 14 VODACOM URC FIXTURES
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Cardiff (Durban, Friday 19.00)
The bookies expect the Sharks to win by 20 which could be a bit ambitious if Cardiff bounce back from their ignominious performance at Loftus with a better effort. Which they should. It is also true that while the Sharks won 45-0 last week it didn’t always feel like that kind of game despite the Sharks’ forward domination. Cardiff should be strengthened by returning Welsh internationals.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 15
Glasgow Warriors v Benetton (Glasgow, Friday 21.45)
Glasgow have laid down the marker this season and last week’s performance against Leinster delivered another statement win. They are not only playing this weekend to maintain their position at the top of the URC log, they are also flexing their muscles and tuning up in preparation for the first knock-out rounds of the Investec Champions Cup, which starts with the round of 16 game against the Bulls on the Easter weekend. Benetton won last week but have been up and down. They did beat Glasgow in the opening round but Glasgow don’t lose at the Scotstoun.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 12 or more.
Leinster v Scarlets (Dublin, Friday 21.45)
Leinster were humbled by Glasgow a week ago and there is a round of 16 Champions Cup game coming up for them next. They will have the bulk of their Ireland internationals back so they can move seamlessly into the European knock-out phase, with the EPCR competition still being the main one they want to win.
Prediction: Leinster to win by 20 or more.
Vodacom Bulls v Munster (Pretoria, Saturday 14.00)
The bookies have it as a more than 13 point win for the Bulls. It won’t be far off that for it is hard to see the current Munster team doing what their predecessors did at Loftus the last time they visited there in 2024. The result on that occasion was a 27-22 win for Munster. The game kicks off at 14.00 and the expected maximum temperature is 29 degrees. That’s a big factor in favour of the Bulls, as is their expected superiority at forward. The caveat though in the expectation of a big Bulls win is that they have to play the right game, something they haven’t always done this season.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 13 or more
Connacht v Ospreys (Galway, Saturday 16.15)
Connacht knocked over Ulster away last weekend so they should be expected to maintain the pressure on the Bulls in the battle for a top eight spot by beating the Ospreys when they are hosting them. A bonus point win could even see Connacht move into the top six, although the Bulls will have something to say about that.
Prediction: Connacht to win by 10 or more.
Fidelity SureDrive Lions v Dragons (Johannesburg, Saturday 16.30)
The Stormers struggled to convert their dominance into points when they played the Dragons last Sunday but it is the efficiency and lethal impact of their transition game that should see the Lions win by a bigger margin than the Cape team did. The Lions are testing their reputation for being inconsistent and prone to a blip, and this is normally when one of those happens, meaning after three consecutive good wins, but it shouldn’t. The Lions have too much going for them now and unlike the other teams they can go for broke knowing they have no EPCR commitments the following weekend and will only return to action on 17 April.
Prediction: Lions to win by 16 or more
DHL Stormers v Edinburgh (Cape Town, Saturday 19.00)
The bookies are expecting a big Stormers win but you’d expect some bounce back from Sean Everitt’s visitors after what happened to them at Ellis Park. They also have their Scottish internationals back, and as Stormers attack coach Dawie Snyman pointed out during the week, the likes of Darcy Graham and Pierre Schoeman did put France to the sword in the Six Nations just a few weeks ago. They say they aren’t thinking about it, but the Stormers do owe Edinburgh one for the visitors humbled them 38-7 in Edinburgh last year. The DHL Stadium though will be a different experience for them and the Stormers should be backed for a solid win if not quite by the margin some are predicting.
Prediction: Stormers to win by 15
Zebre v Ulster (Parma, Saturday 21.45)
Ulster were set back by their unexpected defeat at home to Connacht so will be demanding a response against the team currently filling the bottom place on the log and likely to finish there.
Prediction: Ulster to win by 10 or more
Log standings after 13 games: 1. Glasgow Warriors 50; 2. DHL Stormers 46; 3. Ulster 42; 4. Leinster 41; 5. Cardiff 40; 6. Munster 39; 7. Fidelity SureDrive Lions 38; 8. Vodacom Bulls 35; 9. Connacht 35; 10. Ospreys 29; 11. Hollywoodbets Sharks 29; 12. Benetton 28; 13. Edinburgh 23; 14. Scarlets 21; 15. Dragons 20; 16. Zebre 12.